The USDA NASS Almond Subjective Forecast was released May 12th, reporting a 1% decrease in overall production expected in 2026 relative to 2025. The limited detail provided in this report indicates that pounds per acre yields are expected to remain steady, despite many growers noting lower overall crop set due to bloom conditions and pollination challenges earlier in the season. This suggests that overall nut size may be slightly larger, offsetting more significant yield impacts.
What is the relationship between yield, crop set, and navel orangeworm damage?
Almond crop yield (pounds) is a function of both crop set (number of nuts per tree) and size (weight of the individual nuts). In almonds, navel orangeworm damage is assessed as a percentage. This means that navel orangeworm’s economic impact is based on both the reduction in marketable yield AND grade-related quality premiums or penalties.
Lower crop set in almonds has a direct impact on percent navel orangeworm damage.
How does lower crop set impact navel orangeworm damage?
If moth pressure and control levels are generally the same, years with relatively stable yields but lower crop set can have costly damage implications. When crop density (number of nuts per tree or acre) declines but moth abundance remains unchanged, the ratio of pests to nuts increases. Essentially, there is higher NOW pressure per individual nut, and even small shifts in nut damage will impact quality bonuses and overall returns.
Below is a simple example of how reduced crop set impacts percent NOW damage:
The above numbers are based on moth pressure and crop susceptibility remaining static. These outcomes may be further exacerbated by other factors; for example, lower crop set often results in larger individual nuts. This is good (higher weight per nut can help stabilize yield), but larger nuts can have looser shell seal and be more easily infested by NOW.
How can growers protect their crop from increased NOW damage?
These conditions leave very little margin for error in almond IPM programs. Growers and crop advisers will need to consider all available crop protection tools to deliver the highest quality possible this season.
Mating disruption is critical to successful NOW control.
Growers who have opted for season-long control using Puffers® should feel confident that they have made a sound decision that will deliver strong ROI. For those not using this full-season approach, CheckMate® NOW-F sprayable pheromones can be used to target the remaining generations and reduce harvest damage.
Plan ahead now for your next sprays – hull split and pre-harvest applications will deliver strong results with maximum flexibility. CheckMate® NOW-F is tank mix compatible with all major agrochemicals used in almonds and can be applied by ground or air. For additional details on using sprayable NOW pheromones, see our full spray timing guidelines.
Contact one of our technical experts to discuss your navel orangeworm pheromone program today.